App remarketing: putting mobile ROI insights to work growing your business

Today marketers have access to a huge amount of data about their users and customers. App remarketing is a good example.

On the mobile app side of business, attribution and analytics can provide an amazing view into both the health and vitality of your business and the in-app behaviors of your users. We can leverage mobile app remarketing to capitalize on these signals and meet critical business needs.

Google says app remarketing is …

a way to connect with people who previously interacted with your website or mobile app. It allows you to strategically position your ads in front of these audiences as they browse Google or its partner websites, thus helping you increase your brand awareness or remind those audiences to make a purchase.

One of the reasons why we created the Singular marketing analytics platform was because we wanted to empower marketers to take what they have learned and put it into immediate use building their businesses through data-driven marketing programs that really move the needle on revenue and ROI. One of the best ways to do that is to focus on delivering a one-to-one user experience that reflects the wants and needs of that person. Such data-driven marketing initiatives leverage the signals gathered through the attribution and analytics processes to define and refine what, when and how we speak to app users.

Our audience segmentation offering enables clients to define high-performing audience segments for tailored media and messaging programs. By combining people who have completed a common set of actions, for example, we make it possible to deliver custom messages to those users.

Probably the easiest way to understand the power of this approach is to think in terms of specific use cases …

App remarketing is a crucial tool in the mobile marketer's toolkit

 

App remarketing for new user activation

More and more market research is showing that the first hours and days after an install are a critical time for determining whether someone will become a regular user or customer. By defining high-performing custom audiences of new installs, we can develop and deliver ad messages designed to make regular mobile app usage a habit.

And the more times they return to the app during that early period, the more likely they are to become regular users and customers.

Win back uninstallers

People uninstall mobile apps for a variety of reasons. Uninstalls that occur early in the app user’s life cycle are the most interesting to marketers because they can provide signals on how to improve user relationships. Many mobile app marketers are now defining audiences of recent uninstallers in order to create messaging and media programs for ads designed to get people to reinstall the apps.

App remarketing efforts targeted to these individuals can bring some of them back.

Turning intent into purchases

When an individual searches for products and services in your app, you have a great indication of purchase intent. But one of the realities of our business is that many more people will search than will actually make a purchase in your app.

If you can deliver marketing messages that can drive even modest increases in the number of people who transact in your app, you can have a profound effect on your revenue and profitability. By featuring recently searched items in custom messaging ads — or in an area in your app — you can remind app users that your app is a great way to get the things they want and need. This is a great example of how using app remarketing can help close sales.

App remarketing: engaging cart abandoners

An even better signal of purchase intent is if someone places an item in a shopping cart. For most mobile apps, 90%, 95%, 99% or more people will abandon their carts before making a purchase.

By using custom audiences and dynamic deferred deep-linking app remarketing ads featuring the items in an individual’s cart, we can drive more users to return to the app to buy. For a profound impact on app revenue and profitability.

Upsell or cross sell

The people most likely to make a purchase in your mobile app are those who have already made a purchase in the past. You can get more of those people to transact again through focused messaging that reflects their past purchases and current needs. Further, many app marketers are now cross-marketing one app to the users of another, related app as a means of driving highly efficient user acquisition.

Again, a great example of app remarketing to help close sales.

Better lookalike modeling

Many brands use lookalike modeling – targeting prospects who behave similarly to their users. But what if you could do your modeling based on the characteristics of your best customers and payers? If you could attract more people like them, you can drive your KPIs. By analyzing your best customers and creating audience segments of those individuals, you can work with partners to reach and drive installs from people who hold incredible revenue potential.

I am sure you see how action – closing the loop on data-driven marketing – offers profound advantages versus knowledge alone. Getting that knowledge is essential, but it really only the opening gambit for the highly effective marketer.

 

Using attribution data to calculate mobile ads LTV

Eric Benjamin Seufert is the owner of Mobile Dev Memo, a popular mobile advertising trade blog. He also runs Platform and Publishing efforts at N3TWORK, a mobile gaming company based in San Francisco, and published Freemium Economics, a book about the freemium business model. You can follow Eric on Twitter.

Note: if you’re looking for ad monetization with perhaps less effort than Eric’s method below, talk to your Singular customer service representative (and stay tuned for additional announcements).

Various macro market forces have aligned over the past two years to create the commercial opportunity for app developers to generate significant revenue from in-app advertising. New genres like hypercasual games and even legacy gaming genres and non-gaming genres have created large businesses out of serving rich media video and playable ads to their users by building deep, sophisticated monetization loops that enrich the user experience and produce far less usability friction than some in-app purchases.

But unfortunately, while talented, analytical product designers are able to increase ad revenues with in-game data by deconstructing player behavior and optimizing the placement of ads, user acquisition managers have less data at their disposal in optimizing the acquisition funnel for this type of monetization. Building an acquisition pipeline around in-app ads monetization is challenging because many of the inputs needed to create an LTV model for in-app ads are unavailable or obfuscated. This is evidenced in the fact that a Google search for “mobile app LTV model” yields hundreds of results across a broad range of statistical rigor, but a search for “mobile app ads LTV model” yields almost nothing helpful.

Why is mobile ads LTV so difficult to calculate?

For one, the immediate revenue impact of an ad click within an app isn’t knowable on the part of the developer and is largely outside of their control. Developers get eCPM data from their ad network partners on a monthly basis when they are paid by them, but they can’t really know what any given click is worth because of the way eCPMs are derived (ad networks usually get paid for app installs, not for impressions, so eCPM is a synthetic metric).

Secondly, app developers can’t track ad clicks within their apps, only impressions. So while a developer might understand which users see the most ads in their app and can aggregate that data into average ad views per day (potentially split by source), since most ad revenue is driven by the subsequent installs that happen after a user clicks on an ad, ad view counts alone don’t help to contribute to an understanding of ads LTV.

Thirdly, for most developers, to borrow conceptually from IAP monetization, there are multiple “stores” from which ad viewing (and hopefully, clicking) users can “purchase” from: each of the networks that an app developer is running ads from, versus the single App Store or Google Play Store from which the developer gathers information. So not only is it more onerous to consolidate revenue data for ads, it also further muddies the monetization waters because even if CPMs for various networks can be cast forward to impute revenue, there’s no certainty around what the impression makeup will look like in an app in a given country on a go-forward basis (in other words: just because Network X served 50% of my ads in the US this month, I have no idea if it will serve 50% of my ads in the US next month).

For digging into problems that contain multiple unknown, variable inputs, I often start from the standpoint of: If I knew everything, how would I solve this? For building an ads LTV model, a very broad, conceptual calculation might look like:

What this means is: for a given user who was acquired via Channel A, is using Platform B, and lives in Geography C, the lifetime ad revenue they are expected to generate is the sum of the Monthly Ad Views we estimate for users of that profile (eg. Channel A, Platform B, Geography C) times the monthly blended CPM of ad impressions served to users of that profile.

In this equation, using user attribution data of the form that Singular provides alongside internal behavioral data, we can come up with Lifetime Ad Views broken down by acquisition channel, platform, and geography pretty easily: this is more or less a simple dimensionalized cumulative ad views curve over time that’d be derived in the same way as a cumulative IAP revenue curve.

But the Blended CPM component of this equation is very messy. This is because:

  • Ad networks don’t communicate CPMs by user, only at the geo level; [Editorial note: there is some significant change happening here; we will keep you posted on new developments.]
  • Most developers run many networks in their mediation mix, and that mix changes month-over-month;
  • Impression, click, and video completion counts can be calculated at the user level via mediation services like Tapdaq and ironSource, but as of now those counts don’t come with revenue data.

Note that in the medium-term future, many of the above issues with data availability and transparency will be ameliorated by in-app header bidding (for a good read on that topic, see this article by Dom Bracher of Tapdaq). In the meantime, there are some steps we can take to back into reasonable estimates of blended CPMs for the level of granularity that our attribution data gives us and which is valuable for the purposes of user acquisition (read: provides an LTV that can be bid against on user acquisition channels).

But until that manifests, user acquisition managers are left with some gaps in the data they can use to construct ads LTV estimates. The first glaring gap is the network composition of the impression pool: assuming a diverse mediation pool, there’s no way to know which networks will be filling what percentage of overall impressions in the next month. And the second is the CPMs that will be achieved across those networks on a forward-looking basis, since that’s almost entirely dependent on whether users install apps from the ads they view.

The only way to get around these two gaps is to lean on historical data as a hint at what the future will look like (which violates a key rule of value investing but is nonetheless helpful in forming a view of what’s to come). In this case, we want to look at past CPM performance and past network impression composition for guidance on what to expect on any given future month.

Estimating mobile ads LTV in Python

To showcase how to do that, we can build a simple script in python, starting with the generation of some random sample data. This data considers an app that is only serving ads to users from Facebook, Unity, and Vungle in the US, Canada, and UK:

[code]
import pandas as pd
import matplotlib
import numpy as np
from itertools import product
import random

geos = [ 'US', 'CA', 'UK' ]
platforms = [ 'iOS', 'Android' ]
networks = [ 'Facebook', 'Unity', 'Applovin' ]

def create_historical_ad_network_data( geos, networks ):
 history = pd.DataFrame(list(product(geos, platforms, networks)),
 columns=[ 'geo', 'platform', 'network' ])

 for i in range( 1, 4 ):
 history[ 'cpm-' + str( i ) ] = np.random.randint ( 1, 10, size=len( history ) )
 history[ 'imp-' + str( i ) ] = np.random.randint( 100, 1000, size=len( history ) )
 history[ 'imp-share-' + str( i ) ] = history[ 'imp-' + str( i ) ] / history[ 'imp-' + str( i ) ].sum()

 return history

history = create_historical_data(geos, networks)
print(history)
[/code]

Running this code generates a Pandas DataFrame that looks something like this (your numbers will vary as they’re randomly generated):

[code / table]
geo platform network cpm-1 imp-1 imp-share-1 cpm-2 imp-2 \
0 US iOS Facebook 2 729 0.070374 9 549 
1 US iOS Unity 7 914 0.088232 3 203 
2 US iOS Applovin 7 826 0.079737 4 100 
3 US Android Facebook 2 271 0.026161 2 128 
4 US Android Unity 5 121 0.011681 9 240 
5 US Android Applovin 6 922 0.089005 9 784 
6 CA iOS Facebook 2 831 0.080220 9 889 
7 CA iOS Unity 8 483 0.046626 5 876 
8 CA iOS Applovin 7 236 0.022782 9 642 
9 CA Android Facebook 8 486 0.046916 4 523 
10 CA Android Unity 1 371 0.035814 5 639 
11 CA Android Applovin 8 588 0.056762 7 339 
12 UK iOS Facebook 2 850 0.082054 8 680 
13 UK iOS Unity 7 409 0.039483 3 310 
14 UK iOS Applovin 1 291 0.028092 5 471 
15 UK Android Facebook 7 370 0.035718 6 381 
16 UK Android Unity 3 707 0.068250 6 117 
17 UK Android Applovin 3 954 0.092094 3 581

imp-share-2 cpm-3 imp-3 imp-share-3 
0 0.064955 8 980 0.104433 
1 0.024018 4 417 0.044437 
2 0.011832 3 157 0.016731 
3 0.015144 7 686 0.073103 
4 0.028396 3 550 0.058610 
5 0.092759 8 103 0.010976 
6 0.105182 1 539 0.057438 
7 0.103644 6 679 0.072357 
8 0.075958 5 883 0.094096 
9 0.061879 1 212 0.022592 
10 0.075603 8 775 0.082587 
11 0.040109 6 378 0.040281 
12 0.080454 6 622 0.066283 
13 0.036678 8 402 0.042839 
14 0.055726 7 182 0.019395 
15 0.045078 2 623 0.066390 
16 0.013843 2 842 0.089727 
17 0.068741 1 354 0.037724
[/code]

One thing to consider at this point is that we have to assume, on a month-to-month basis, that any user in any given country will be exposed to the same network composition as any other user on the same platform (that is, the ratio of Applovin ads being served to users in the US on iOS is the same for all users of an app in a given month). This almost certainly isn’t strictly true, as, for any given impression, the type of device a user is on (eg. iPhone XS Max vs. iPhone 6) and other user-specific information will influence which network fills an impression. But in general, this assumption is probably safe enough to employ in the model.

Another thing to point out is that retention is captured in the Monthly Ad Views estimate that is tied to source channel. One common confusion in building an Ads LTV model is that there are ad networks involved in both sides of the funnel: the network a user is acquired from and the network a user monetizes with via ads served in the app. In the construction of our model, we capture “user quality” in the Monthly Ad Views component from Part A, which encompasses retention in the same way that a traditional IAP-based LTV curve does. So there’s no reason to include “user quality” in the Part B of the equation, since it’s already used to inform Part A.

Given this, the next step in approximating Part B is to get a historical share of each network, aggregated at the level of the Geo and Platform. Once we have this, we can generate a blended CPM value at the level of Geo and Platform to multiply against the formulation in Part A (again, since we assume all users see the same network blend of ads, we don’t have to further aggregate the network share by the user’s source network).

In the below code, the trailing three-month impressions are calculated as a share of the total at the level of Geo and Platform. Then, each network’s CPM is averaged over the trailing three months and the sumproduct is returned:

[code]
history[ 'trailing-3-month-imp' ] = history[ 'imp-1' ] + history[ 'imp-2' ] + history[ 'imp-3' ]

history[ 'trailing-3-month-imp-share' ] = history[ 'trailing-3-month-imp' ] / history.groupby( [ 'geo', 'platform' ] )[ 'trailing-3-month-imp' ].transform( sum )

history[ 'trailing-3-month-cpm' ] = history[ [ 'cpm-1', 'cpm-2', 'cpm-3' ] ].mean( axis=1 )

blended_cpms = ( history[ [ 'trailing-3-month-imp-share', 'trailing-3-month-cpm' ] ].prod( axis=1 )
 .groupby( [ history[ 'geo' ], history[ 'platform' ] ] ).sum( ).reset_index( )
)

blended_cpms.rename( columns = { blended_cpms.columns[ len( blended_cpms.columns ) - 1 ]: 'CPM' }, inplace = True )

print( blended_cpms )
[/code]

Running this snippet of code should output a DataFrame that looks something like this (again, the numbers will be different):

[code]
geo platform CPM
0 CA Android 5.406508
1 CA iOS 4.883667
2 UK Android 4.590680
3 UK iOS 5.265561
4 US Android 4.289083
5 US iOS 4.103224
[/code]

So now what do we have? We have a matrix of blended CPMs broken out at the level of Geo and Platform (eg. the CPM that Unity Ads provides for US, iOS users) — this is Part B from the equation above. The Part A from that equation — which is the average number of ad views in a given month that we expect from users that match various profile characteristics pertaining to their source channel, geography, and platform — would have been taken from internal attribution data mixed with internal app data, but we can generate some random data to match what it might look like with this function:

[code]
def create_historical_one_month_ad_views( geos, networks ):
 ad_views = pd.DataFrame( list( product( geos, platforms, networks ) ), 
 columns=[ 'geo', 'platform', 'source_channel' ] )
 ad_views[ 'ad_views' ] = np.random.randint( 50, 500, size=len( ad_views ) )
 
 return ad_views

month_1_ad_views = create_historical_one_month_ad_views( geos, networks )
print( month_1_ad_views )
[/code]

Running the above snippet should output something like the following:

[code]
geo platform source_channel ad_views
0 US iOS Facebook 73
1 US iOS Unity 463
2 US iOS Applovin 52
3 US Android Facebook 60
4 US Android Unity 442
5 US Android Applovin 349
6 CA iOS Facebook 279
7 CA iOS Unity 478
8 CA iOS Applovin 77
9 CA Android Facebook 479
10 CA Android Unity 120
11 CA Android Applovin 417
12 UK iOS Facebook 243
13 UK iOS Unity 306
14 UK iOS Applovin 52
15 UK Android Facebook 243
16 UK Android Unity 106
17 UK Android Applovin 195
[/code]

We can now match the performance data from our user base (gleaned using attribution data) with our projected CPM data to get an estimate of ad revenue for the given month with this code:

[code]
combined = pd.merge( month_1_ad_views, blended_cpms, on=[ 'geo', 'platform' ] )
combined[ 'month_1_ARPU' ] = combined[ 'CPM' ] * ( combined[ 'ad_views' ] / 1000 )

print( combined )
[/code]

Running the above snippet should output something like the following:

[code]
geo platform source_channel ad_views CPM month_1_ARPU
0 US iOS Facebook 73 5.832458 0.425769
1 US iOS Unity 463 5.832458 2.700428
2 US iOS Applovin 52 5.832458 0.303288
3 US Android Facebook 60 5.327445 0.319647
4 US Android Unity 442 5.327445 2.354731
5 US Android Applovin 349 5.327445 1.859278
6 CA iOS Facebook 279 6.547197 1.826668
7 CA iOS Unity 478 6.547197 3.129560
8 CA iOS Applovin 77 6.547197 0.504134
9 CA Android Facebook 479 4.108413 1.967930
10 CA Android Unity 120 4.108413 0.493010
11 CA Android Applovin 417 4.108413 1.713208
12 UK iOS Facebook 243 4.626163 1.124158
13 UK iOS Unity 306 4.626163 1.415606
14 UK iOS Applovin 52 4.626163 0.240560
15 UK Android Facebook 243 5.584462 1.357024
16 UK Android Unity 106 5.584462 0.591953
17 UK Android Applovin 195 5.584462 1.088970
[/code]

That last column — month_1_ARPU — is the amount of ad revenue you might expect from users in their first month, matched to their source channel, their geography, and their platform. In other words, it is their 30-day LTV.

Putting it all together

Hopefully this article has showcased the fact that, while it’s messy and somewhat convoluted, there does exist a reasonable approach to estimating ads LTV using attribution and ads performance data. Taking this approach further, one might string together more months of ad view performance data to extend the limit of the Ads LTV estimate (to month two, three, four, etc.) and then use historical CPM fluctuations to get a more realistic estimate of where CPMs will be on any given point in the future (for example, using a historical blended average doesn’t make sense in the run-up to Christmas, when CPMs spike).

The opportunities and possibilities for making money via rich ads at this point of the mobile cycle are exciting, but they don’t come without new challenges. In general, with the way the mobile advertising ecosystem is progressing towards algorithm-driven and programmatic campaign management, user acquisition teams need to empower themselves with analytical creativity to find novel ways to scale their apps profitably.

. . .

. . .

Next: Get the full No-BS Guide to Mobile Attribution, for free, today.

5 Struggles of a UA Manager

If you’ve worked in mobile advertising, you know that user acquisition (UA) is no easy feat. UA managers face a lot of challenges in their day-to-day, and we consider it our job to make their lives easier. Read on to learn about the top 5 struggles of today’s UA managers, and how they overcome those challenges.

1: Connecting fragmented data

On average, advertisers are running campaigns on 20 or more networks. But each network uses a unique taxonomy and hierarchy in their reporting. This normally means the UA manager is spending hours in spreadsheets trying to standardize and aggregate a slew of reports just to get a side by side analysis. It’s enough to drive you mad.

 

Enter Singular: Our marketing analytics platform helps you connect fragmented data and perform side by side analyses by automating the collection and standardization of your data across all media sources. Singular even auto-detects data discrepancies before they throw off your analytical groove. We’ll do the heavy lifting (aka turning data into actionable insights) so that you can get to the good stuff, like improving your audience or creative strategies.

2: Uncovering ROI at granular levels

Imagine that you’re running a successful ad campaign, but you’re not sure which element of the campaign is really bringing you wins. Are you scoring well in a particular country? Is one variation of your ad creative outperforming a different version? Is one of your publishers raking in the cash or is it another? You need to dig deep down into the data and get the most granular view possible to understand where you’re doing well – and where you aren’t.

We know that ROI is your bottom line. It’s our’s, too. A huge focus of our efforts are dedicated to efficiently combining attribution and marketing data to uncover ROI down to the Creative and Keyword levels so that marketers can leave the manual work behind and focus on hitting their goals. When our customers have a clear view of all of their marketing data, it makes it easy for them to drill down to the most granular levels possible, and take home the valuable insights they need to win.

3: Combating fraud and feeling confident in your data

Fraudsters diverted over $6.5B away from the advertising ecosystem last year. That number is only going to increase as their tactics continue to evolve and bypass traditional prevention methods. But somehow, 63% of mobile advertisers are not actively using fraud prevention in their attribution systems. How can you be sure that you aren’t being taken advantage of by fraudsters?

It takes a lot of smart proactive and reactive work to protect your assets against the efforts of fraudsters.

Fortunately, Singular’s Fraud Prevention Suite is the most sophisticated product on the market today. We’ll show you where and when fraud is taking place, proactively reject fraudulent clicks, installs, and events, and give you complete control over the way you want to take action on fraudulent activity. Plus, our methods for combating fraud are constantly adapting to new forms so you can feel confident in your data.

4: Help Finance reconcile marketing spend

UA managers need a healthy marketing budget to work with. But how do you ensure you get this? By proving to Finance that you know how to spend your budget wisely and that you can produce profit for the company. But how can you do this if you aren’t 100% confident in the accuracy and reliability of your data?

At Singular, we pride ourselves on the authenticity and verifiability of the data we present. This is in part due to the use of our proprietary API that acts as a solid line of defense against data loss. Other providers get marketing data from tracking links, which are imperfect and subject to breaking – resulting in the UA team on the other end never receiving the spend data they’re looking for. When you use Singular, our API takes a second pass at retrieving data even when your links fail.

5: Directing your design team on what assets are performing

Killer creatives are absolutely essential to a successful marketing strategy, but a great creative that works for some audiences won’t necessarily work for others. How do you ensure you’re serving the most engaging creatives imaginable to your targeted audience? And how do you set up your designers with the information they need to create those breakthrough ads? It can be a dizzying problem.

With Singular’s Creative Reporting, UA teams can learn a lot about what they’re doing right with their ads. Through our advanced reporting tool, marketers can measure ad fatigue, the effectiveness of creative variations per demographic, the difference in performance of minute changes to creative such as font color, and much more.

All these struggles are a huge pain for UA teams, but they don’t have to be. With the right partners and tools in place, marketers can reduce the headaches caused by these problems and get down to the work they really care about. If you’re interested in the solutions we have, request a demo!

Ad Monetization Reporting & True ROI Made Easy

Since launching Singular 4 years ago, we’ve worked tirelessly to become the de-facto Marketing Data Platform for the top mobile brands around the world. Our clients use Singular to unify their core marketing data sets into a single source of truth. And we take pride in helping them sort through the complexities of the ecosystem and uncover insights to help grow their business.

Singular is dedicated to helping marketers uncover ROI across their entire customer journey. A lot of marketers have a single source of revenue, in the form of in-app purchases, but many others have an additional source of revenue called “Ad Revenue” (similar to how a little company named Facebook makes their money 😉). As a result, ROI shouldn’t solely factor “App Revenue”, but must also “Ad Revenue”.

At Singular’s first annual growth marketing summit, UNIFY, our CEO Gadi Elishav announced the launch of our Ad Monetization Reporting. This product addition is in direct alignment with our vision is to help marketers uncover their business’ unique customer journey and understand every touch point within that journey.

Singular’s Ad Monetization Reporting collects, aggregates and standardizes your ad revenue data from all of your monetization partners into a single reporting view. We’ve taken the same approach and technology that Singular is known for with our new Ad Monetization Reporting. For customers who also use Singular attribution – we will soon provide deeper insights into granular ROI, accounting for both Ad Revenue and In-App Purchases, commonly referred to in the industry as True ROI. We’ve already integrated the most popular monetization partners, and are consistently adding new partners.

 

This is a game-changer for User Acquisition and Monetization teams alike:

  • User Acquisition teams can finally account for Ad Revenue in their ROI formula.
  • With the ability to see the true ROI figures – User Acquisition Managers will be able to make better decisions about the actual performance of their campaigns and channels and scale their marketing efforts efficiently and more intelligently. Channels and campaigns that you thought had a specific ROI could look completely different once we factor Ad Revenue into the ROI calculation.
  • A centralized snapshot of all your Ad Revenue enables better insights and scaling app ad revenue down to the placement level.
  • Streamline work with finance, and have a true end-to-end view of your marketing profit and loss.

Are you interested in next-level Ad Monetization Reporting and analyzing more accurate ROIs? Let’s connect! Reach out to your Customer Success Manager today or contact us.

How User-Level ROI Can Boost Your Remarketing Return

This is the first post in a series of articles about Return on Investment (ROI) in mobile marketing. Each post in Singular’s Mobile ROI Series will dive into a different level of mobile ROI data — from User-Level to Country-Level to Publisher-Level ROI — and show how mobile marketers are using different facets of their ROI data to increase performance.

These days, many mobile marketers are investing in app remarketing — the practice of creating high-performing user segments and customizing marketing campaigns to these users in order to drive incremental app engagement and revenue. Remarketing is increasingly viewed as a critical source of mobile ROI. For our clients who use the attribution toolset, remarketing’s share of paid events has increased more than 18X in the past two years.

When segmenting users for the purpose of remarketing, tracking how much you pay for each user and the touchpoints that drive them into your app is as important as tracking how much users spend in your app. Yet all too often, marketers rely solely on user revenue and post-install events when deciding on user groups to remarket to and how much to spend on driving their future actions.

Here we’ll show why targeting existing users based solely on the revenue or events they complete in your app may actually be hurting your remarketing efforts, and how you can leverage User-Level ROI data to drive more profitable remarketing campaigns.

Mobile ROI for High-Revenue User Audiences

For remarketing, mobile marketers often create user segments based on the revenue, events and device-level information recorded in their app. One segment might include users who completed a sign-up; another might include users who browsed a certain type of product page. These segments are used to customize remarketing messaging and media programs, including push notifications, email and retargeting on ad networks.

One of the most common pieces of information used for remarketing is revenue — the total amount of money a user has spent, or is expected to spend, in your app. Marketers will often segment users who have spent above a certain amount and shift budget to remarket to their most “valuable” users.

However, doing so without factoring in the cost of acquiring and re-engaging users can actually yield negative ROI. Marketers must factor in the cost of each user touchpoint — otherwise they risk remarketing to users who cost more than they generate in revenue.

As the table below shows, just because a mobile app user generates comparatively high revenue doesn’t mean they deliver positive mobile marketing ROI.

In this example, User 1 spends more in the app, but costs 6 times as much to attract. Based on these figures, User 2 is actually more profitable — a fact that would go unnoticed by marketers who aren’t tracking user-level cost.

We work with a client in Asia who witnessed such results. When they optimized their mobile app marketing programs to users that drove the most revenue, they actually overlooked many of their best customers from a profitability perspective.

Instead of user revenue, mobile marketers should focus on user-level mobile ROI (user revenue divided by user cost) when segmenting users for remarketing. Where ROI is greater than 100%, spending on the user yields incremental profit.

With this approach, you might observe that users who cost a lot to acquire will often also cost a lot to re-engage. Remove these users from remarketing campaigns in favor of remarketing to users who may spend less initially but who will be cheaper to re-engage and, as a result, more profitable in the long run.

The Problem with Optimizing on Cost

Remember that the reverse can also be true, that users who cost more to acquire can actually turn out to be your most profitable mobile app users. Consider two different mobile app users whose costs and revenue are outlined below:

This is a fairly common mobile marketing circumstance. For example, users of mobile apps that are attracted by low-cost incentivized media are often less lucrative from an ROI perspective. Remarketing to such individuals can spike your app installs but produce less profit.

If you focus your remarketing efforts solely on users that cost little to acquire, you may optimize to programs that actually hurt your rate of return. Again, considering both cost and revenue will yield better results for your business.

By accounting for the cost to acquire and re-engage users through mobile advertising and other tactics, marketers can segment users who drive the most revenue at the lowest cost. In turn, mobile marketers won’t get stuck blindly remarketing to app users who actually cost a boatload and are less profitable to re-engage. Marketers would do well to remember this important insight for their campaigns.

Find out how the world’s best marketers, including Lyft, Yelp, Zynga, Walmart and Postmates, use Singular to expose deep ROI insights to increase marketing performance at Singular.net.

Download The Singular ROI Index to see the world’s first ranking of ad networks by app ROI.

Why Marketing ROI Is The Most Important Yet Least Understood Metric in UA

It is perhaps the most dysfunctional metric in digital marketing.

Marketing return on investment, or marketing ROI, is frequently talked about, but frequently misstated, misunderstood, or just plain inaccurate.

Simply put, marketing ROI is a way of measuring the return on investment from the amount a company spends on marketing. It can be used to assess the return of a company’s overall marketing mix, or a specific marketing program.

The calculation for marketing ROI might seem relatively straightforward: Revenue divided by Marketing Cost. Yet arriving at fast, granular and reliable ROI data is by no means a straightforward process.

ROI calculation is particularly challenging for marketers who seek detailed levels of reporting to inform their optimizations. For instance, marketers may want to see the ROI of a specific campaign, publisher, keyword, geography or user — and the more granular a marketer wants to get, the more difficult it is to calculate ROI.

But before we delve the into the challenges of calculating ROI, let’s dive into why marketers consider ROI to be such an important metric.

Critical to Securing Marketing Budget

Marketing is a significant expense and leaders want to know exactly what they’re getting for it. In a recent study commissioned by Google, marketers identified ROI as the most valuable metric for securing additional budget for their marketing programs and media campaigns.

The study, which surveyed 150 marketing decision-makers at U.S. companies, found that consistently achieving ROI goals allowed marketers to prove the value of their initiatives to the greater organization and ultimately gain resources from executives to expand their efforts.

Deciding Where to Spend

Marketers often calculate ROI at the channel or campaign level to determine which efforts have a higher return and therefore deserve additional investment. When experimenting with a new ad network or marketing channel, a crucial first step for marketers is setting up analytics such that marketing teams can measure ROI and determine if the network or channel is driving performance.

Smarter Optimizations

In the process of determining the effectiveness of an ad network or channel, marketers optimize ongoing campaigns on the fly to maximize performance. Effective optimizations require digging deeper into spend and performance data to achieve more granular levels of reporting.

For instance, ad networks consist of numerous websites and apps, known individually as “publishers”, where marketers’ ads run. By monitoring the ROI of specific publishers within an ad network, marketers can determine which publishers drive the best performance. In turn, marketers are able to increase spending on high-performing publishers and shut off or “blacklist” under-performing publishers in order to increase the overall ROI of an ad network.

Marketers might also seek to inform their optimizations with ROI analysis at the Campaign, Creative, Keyword, Geographic or User level — or any combination of these dimensions. For instance, a marketer may want to see how one creative performs in a specific geography in a campaign which targets a specific demographic of users.

ROI Drives Integrated Marketing Analytics

This kind of precision analysis requires a particularly advanced set of analytics tools to collect, clean and combine data streamed from multiple sources, not to mention powerful database technologies to process flexible queries on large volumes of data.

The ROI metric in particular requires combining data from multiple sources — namely cost, revenue and event data. The most accurate and granular cost data comes from direct marketing channel integrations, which often require constant maintenance. Meanwhile, revenue and event data is typically extracted from tracking links, before it is combined with cost data to produce ROI and other “full-funnel” metrics like Cost per Event.

By focusing on ROI, marketing teams can galvanize their teams around building marketing analytics systems that leverage a host of well-integrated tools to deliver intuitive and flexible reporting. Google’s study showed that marketers with measurement stacks that rely on five or more marketing analytics tools are 39% more likely to see improvements in the overall performance of their marketing programs. They are also able to realize reduced marketing expenses and improved marketing efficiency than their less sophisticated counterparts in other organizations.

The Challenges of Calculating ROI

Google’s study showed that marketers are not confident in their ability to reliably measure ROI. While a majority felt capable of accurately measuring the performance of efforts like email campaigns as well as traffic to their site or app, only 13 percent of marketers were confident in their ability to measure marketing ROI and only 14 percent were very confident that they understood the contribution of marketing programs to business revenue.

The number one reason marketers gave for why they have such a hard time exposing ROI is a lack of integration between their marketing analytics tools.

In the study, only 26 percent of marketers believed that their marketing analytics tools were well integrated, while one-third of marketers believed their tools don’t work together efficiently at all.

Download The Singular ROI Index to see the world’s first ranking of ad networks by app ROI.

Mobile Fraud by the Numbers

Ad fraud is a problem, but just how big of a problem?

Ad verification company Adloox found that in 2016 ad fraud cost marketers nearly 20 percent of their total digital ad spend — meaning one out of every 5 dollars marketers spent on advertising was wasted due to bots, spiders and other non-human actors viewing or clicking their ads.

And despite an increased focus on ad fraud prevention in the marketing industry, researchers project that the ad fraud problem will only grow in 2017. Agency group The&Partnership estimates that the cost of ad fraud will swell to nearly $16.4 billion globally this year, up from $12.5 billion last year.

Costs of Fraud

By 2025, global ad fraud costs could reach $50 billion annually, the World Federation of Advertisers (WFA) said earlier this year — which is second only to the drug trade as a source of income for organized crime.

Gaming is the Most Targeted

On mobile, gaming is by far the most susceptible to ad fraud, with 39% of all attempted fraudulent traffic aimed at gaming apps, following by Lifestyle apps (18%), Shopping apps (15%), Travel apps (15%) and Sports apps (14%). That’s according to a recent study by mobile ad network ClicksMob, which also found that fraud was more prevalent on iOS apps than Android apps. iOS apps account for 61% of attempted fraud, compared with 39% for Android apps.

A Constantly Moving Target

As with most data-driven industries, organizations and fraudsters are in a race with each other. The organizations iterate on detection and prevention tactics, while fraudsters create more and more sophisticated and devious forms of fraud. As of now, the numbers seem to suggest that fraudsters in the digital advertising world are winning by a long shot.

New forms of fraud are constantly being uncovered, with the latest and most prevalent being Ad Stacking, Click Injection, Click Spamming, and Mobile Location Data Spoofing. Frequently, by the time advertisers uncover new forms of fraud and implement prevention methodologies — which inevitably take time to catch on across advertisers and ad networks — the damage has already been done.

For instance, an investigation in 2015 found that thousands of mobile apps were secretly running ads that users never see. Ad fraud tracking firm Forensiq identified over 5,000 mobile apps that display unseen ads on both Apple and Android devices, costing mobile app advertisers roughly $850 million each year and churning through user data usage with malware, the report found.

Ad Fraud and Ad Blocking

Beyond the obvious damaging effects of ad fraud — namely, that it dramatically lowers app marketing ROI — one corollary effect of the growth in malware and ad fraud is that it encourages ad blocking adoption among users.

Over 40 percent of users said they use ad blockers to protect against malware and viruses, a recent survey by ad blocker software Optimal and Wells Fargo found. At the same time, ad blocking usage is on the rise, surging 30 percent in 2016. Over 60 percent of devices with ad-blocking software installed are mobile devices, according to PageFair, which helps publishers recover revenue lost to digital ad-blocking.

This trend alone should serve as a rallying cry for the industry and align the interests of both ad networks and advertisers to stamp out mobile ad fraud. After all, if the rate of ad fraud continues to rise, increasing users’ data costs and prompting more users to install ad-blocking software that safeguards against such costs, the entire digital advertising ecosystem will suffer.

So what can marketers do to protect against mobile ad fraud? Below are 6 tips to identify and prevent ad fraud.

1. Anti-Fraud Tools

Some attribution and analytics suites offer tools to help marketers identify and prevent fraud. Such tools may use signals like IP addresses, click and install pattern detection, and activity monitoring to pinpoint campaigns, partners and buying models that are driving suspicious app installs.

2. Common Sense

Gone are the days when savvy app marketers were taken in by promises from ad networks of massive install counts quickly or at extremely low cost. Today, marketers know that a deal that sounds too good to be true is likely to result in low-quality app installs.

3. Focusing Resources on Larger, Trusted Partners

Large or niche vertical media companies are more likely to have the scale and resources to detect and prevent fraud. Further, properties like social networks can leverage user account information to help ensure that installs come from legitimate people. At Singular, we saw a 393% increase in the number of installs driven by the top ten media partners, and a 105% increase for the second ten, in 2016. The “losers” during that same period? Smaller players without a quality user story to tell. While the size of the media company is no guarantee of strong or weak app installs, this is an instance where big brands are gravitating toward big media to protect their investments.

4. Leveraging Retention and Uninstall Data

By comparing the set of user traffic attracted by different media companies, brands can learn a lot about user quality. Low user retention or high uninstall rates increasingly are seen as signals of possible fraudulent activity.

5. Diversify Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Smart incentivized install campaigns drive users to install the app plus complete a post-install event, such as a registration process or tutorial completion. Develop KPIs & benchmarks that are harder to predict or unrealistic to incentivize — such as post-install events that are unique to your traffic, or long-term usage metrics that occur days or weeks after the install. Arguably, the best KPI to monitor and prevent fraud is ROI, or revenue divided by cost, as it is particularly difficult for fraudsters to simulate a sale, especially because most marketing analytics platforms — including Singular — verify in-app purchases with App Stores.

6. Identify Publisher-Level Anomalies

Sometimes ad networks may not be aware that their publishers are perpetrating fraud. By breaking out source- & campaign-level reporting to examine key metrics at the publisher level, it can be easy to spot publishers that drive abnormally high app install counts or abnormally low-quality users.

Introducing Publisher ROI Analytics

Imagine a world in which you had perfect visibility into your media sources.

You could easily expose a breakdown of every ad network’s inventory and determine the individual publishers driving the best performance. You could actually see where your money is being spent and how well each app or site performs for you. You could analyze “performance” not merely by raw install count or revenue, but rather by the actual quality of those users, as measured by ROI.

Optimization decisions would be obvious and, in some cases, automated. You could increase spend for high-performing publishers and decrease spend for under-performing publishers, or shut them off entirely. You could set rules so your publisher-level spending reacts in real-time when performance metrics rise above or dip below a certain level.

With the right tools in place, marketers would be able to easily measure and optimize ROI data at the publisher level to improve the overall performance of each marketing channel.

Publisher-Level ROI Analytics: A Giant Leap Forward

Today, Singular is taking a giant step closer to unlocking this level of transparency with our latest beta release, Publisher ROI Analytics. Singular customers will now have the ability to drill deeper into spend and performance data from their media sources and expose user-level business value by publisher — including ROI, CPA, ARPU, and CVR data — in order to quickly identify and optimize their most valuable pockets of traffic.

Historically, exposing publisher-level ROI data has been an arduous and error-prone process. In some cases, marketers have sought to rely on publisher cost and campaign data collected from tracking links — which is frequently unavailable or inaccurate. In other cases, marketers have been forced to manually collect and combine publisher data from their ad networks in unwieldy Excel files that require constant updating due to ever-changing bids and dynamic cost structures.

Singular now makes the process painless and precise. Our robust integrations with ad networks as well as our advanced data enrichment and combining technologies give marketers a single source of truth for fast and flexible performance data on a publisher level.

Currently, more than 70 of Singular’s integrated ad networks report publisher-level cost and campaign data. Singular collects, cleans and combines this data with revenue and events retrieved from tracking links in order to expose ROI and other full-funnel metrics on a publisher level. Ad partners supporting Singular’s Publisher ROI Analytics include Google AdWords, AdColony, Chartboost, Vungle and 70+ other partners.

In addition, Singular will soon launch a fallback mechanism to handle when a Publisher ID streamed from a tracking link cannot be matched to ad network cost data. In these instances, when a matching Publisher ID is not found, Singular will automatically interpolate data based on the total channel cost (as reported by the ad network) and the paid engagements per publisher (as reported by your tracking links) to provide an estimate of your Publisher-Level ROI. This maximizes the amount of traffic for which marketers receive Publisher-Level ROI data, increasing the accuracy of such data.

Already, in a closed beta test of this feature, multiple Singular customers have leveraged publisher-level analytics to better analyze and optimize the sources within their sources, leading to large efficiency gains and increases in the ROI of their channels.

Enabled By Huge Advances in Processing Power

As most marketing data engineers know, the sheer amount of memory required to process publisher-level data is enormous. On average, we found that collecting publisher-level granularity multiplies the amount of rows by 50–100X compared to collecting campaign-level granularity.

This means that queries are required to process vastly more data, which can dramatically slow database query times, creating bottlenecks for marketers and preventing them from optimizing as quickly and as often as they’d like to.

This is precisely why Singular invested heavily in building a new data pipeline and data store that enables ad-hoc queries on a billion rows with sub-second performance. In doing so, we increased the speed of our customers’ queries — in some cases by a factor of 150X — with a horizontally scalable architecture optimized for advanced analytics.

Now, publisher-level queries that once took 60 seconds in Singular take 1–2 seconds, while queries that once took 30 seconds are now less than a second. With these performance upgrades in place, we’re now able to give customers the ability to process the most granular marketing data — including Publisher, Keyword and Creative-level analytics — at lightning fast speeds.

As ad networks share more and more data with advertisers about where their marketing dollars are being spent, we’re thrilled to help marketers adapt to the data explosion and arm them with the analytics they need to make Publisher Optimization easier than ever.

App Analytics in Depth: How Data Matching Creates Unprecedented Value for Marketers

A big part of my role here at Singular is helping to articulate how our unique approach to data management creates tremendous incremental value for app analytics and marketing — value that marketers cannot get from any other company.

For those who are unfamiliar with our methodology for collecting and processing iOS and Android data for app analytics, let me outline the four components of our approach:

  • Extraction: How we capture all of the relevant marketing data from each client’s many partners and platforms, and bring it to their respective instances of our unified app analytics platform.
  • Enrichment: How we collaborate with clients to ensure that, even if their partners haven’t in the past been able to deliver data at the level of granularity they need for ROI and other analysis, we can use unique tagging rules and business processes to make it possible going forward.
  • Combining: How Singular standardizes taxonomy and matches Android and iOS marketing effectiveness with user experience app data across partners and platforms to deliver ROI and other business insights at any level of granularity.,
  • Loading: Our proprietary process for importing the data to our analytics database and making it available through advanced, flexible reporting and customizable dashboards. Thus allowing for quick and easy analysis of actionable insights.

I’ve told this four-part data management and enrichment story to dozens of enterprise app developer and app publisher marketing teams, and the discussions nearly always go the same. We move quickly through the app data extraction, enrichment and loading components; these are telegraphic concepts that can be understood in the context of app analytics without a lot of explanation. But combining? That takes a few minutes longer.

Why? Fundamentally, it’s about something that gets very little discussion in the industry — the need to get mobile app data organized, united and segmented right in order to get insight out of it.

Combining Mobile App Analytics Data

Brand leaders must work with a variety of partners and platforms to deliver marketing campaigns and grow their Android and iOS app businesses. Because it’s expensive and complicated to work with so many end points to attract and engage users, marketers are clamoring for better tools that streamline management, app analytics, and reporting.

Mobile application marketers must have a way to combine data from all these sources in a single platform to fully understand their businesses and users. Specifically, they must:

  • Measure the app marketing ROI for all their media investments, at any level of granularity
  • Determine how to optimize their marketing campaigns and other programs so they can attract and engage more iOS and Android app users and deliver optimized data-driven marketing

It’s challenging to construct metaphorical “pipes” to route data from all sources into your analytic tool. But “pipes” aren’t enough. You also need to ensure that the mobile app data flowing through those pipes is combined with data from other sources. In ways that make sense and offer marketers the sort of insights and granularity that they need.

For data to be correctly combined, you need to:

  • Collect the same data on both the network “side” (spend) and the tracker “side” (cost/revenue)
  • Create consistency in organization between upper funnel and lower funnel data

The challenge is that no two sources organize and categorize data in the same way. Across the hundreds of networks available to marketers, there is no standard set of dimensions or naming conventions. This makes it difficult for marketers to identify true ROI with granularity, and to compare performance side-by-side.

Collecting Complete and Consistent Data

Media networks, push notification platforms, and other toolsets for mobile app marketing organize data so that it can be examined at some level of detail. Whether that be at the app, source, publisher, operating system (OS), campaign, creative execution, or keyword level. However, since not all platforms provide every data dimension, marketers need a partner who will:

  • Work with each network to make that data available. Every day, we are working with networks to provide consistent levels of granularity so we can provide ROI at the level marketers need in order to make the most effective campaign optimizations
  • Pull data from various text-based fields and customize to create conventions that complete missing data. Without proper naming conventions, it becomes impossible to identify every detail of the campaign for every source
  • Use heuristic rules to complete missing data. With proprietary technology, we identify each part of the various text-based fields to auto-complete the missing data not provided by the source as a default. For example, in many cases networks do not provide country level data, but it is important for the customer to see performance by country when determining market expansion. We are able to extract this information in other ways to complete the missing information in the report
  • Use custom rules to identify dimensions of data specific to your business. No two businesses are alike. Each has its own app names and nomenclature for distinct aspects of its business. We work with our customers to identify those specific business terms in order to accurately reflect this data in the reporting dashboard

Creating Consistency in Data Organization

Once the data is collected from each network and data provider, it then needs to be standardized. The structures used by media partners and trackers for reporting cost, revenue, and other information vary. Therefore matching to a consistent convention can be a challenge.

By understanding the data provided through each integration, and aligning it to Singular’s standardized data structure and taxonomy, we ensure that we can match all ad performance datasets — like clicks, installs, purchases — to the marketing investments that drove them.

In fact, we work with more than 1,000 partners to codify and adapt to the way that they parse and deliver data to our platform and our clients.

 

Summary: It’s About a Lot More Than the Pipes

Lots of companies are working on ways of building the mobile data “pipes.” They are feverishly trying to build out the infrastructure to get app performance, marketing results, and media investment information from multiple sources and synthesize it into a single app analytics platform. At Singular, we’ve been doing that for years, and understand all too well why companies often talk about what a struggle this can be.

But even when other analytic solutions eventually reach the stage when they can mimic our mobile app data intake infrastructure, they still won’t be able to match what we do. That’s because we focus just as much attention on what goes through the pipes as in the infrastructure itself. By ensuring that all of the different data sets are organized, combinable, and connectable to other data sets, at the appropriate levels of granularity, we ensure that marketers can squeeze all of the insights from their data.

Find out how the world’s best marketers, including Lyft, Yelp, Zynga, Walmart and Postmates, use Singular to expose deep ROI insights to increase marketing performance at Singular.net.

Introducing The Singular ROI Index, the World’s First Ranking of Mobile Ad Networks By Return on Investment

The Singular ROI Index is the first of its kind analysis of the app ROI generated by different mobile app ad networks. While past research has measured ad network performance using mobile app metrics like user retention and revenue per install, it has neglected a major part of the picture: the cost associated with driving such engagement. Providing mobile app advertisers with revenue or conversion data without cost data is similar to reporting the earnings of public companies or dividends paid to shareholders without accounting for the price at which investors purchase the stock. That’s why we created the Singular ROI Index, the world’s first ranking of ad networks by app ROI.

Key Findings

Facebook Overtakes AdWords on Android: While AdWords was the top-performing ad network for mobile apps on Android in the first half of 2016, there was a changing of the guard in the second half of the year. Facebook surged into the top spot for app ROI on Android, bumping AdWords into the #2 position.

Apple Search Ads Burst Onto the Scene: Apple Search Ads publicly launched in October 2016 and in a very short period of time emerged to deliver the 7th highest mobile app ROI on iOS in the second half of the year and the 10th highest ROI in 2016.

iOS Ads Drive 1.3X Higher App ROI than Android Ads: While it’s well-known among marketers that iOS users spend an average of 4X more in apps than Android users, no research has ever factored in the amount of advertiser investment required to acquire those users on iOS vs. Android. Singular found that mobile device users are about 1.65X cheaper to acquire through Android ads compared to iOS ads. Yet iOS ads drive 1.3X higher ROI than Android ads — meaning for each dollar a marketer spends to acquire a mobile app user on iOS, they can expect to get back 1.3 times more revenue than if they had spent that dollar on Android.

Networks on the Rise: NativeX, Motive, Mobvista, Fyber, YouAppi Singular’s mobile app ROI analysis uncovered a host of rising stars that drove top 20 ROI for advertisers, but are yet to rank among the highest-earning mobile ad networks. As more advertisers execute iOS and Android app ROI positive campaigns on these ad networks, Singular predicts their share of mobile ad budgets will continue to grow.

Download The Singular ROI Index to see the world’s first ranking of ad networks by app ROI.